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| How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 25-08-2006, 00:08 | When you strictly follow the system UEFA apparently used last 2 years (teams 1-8 in groups 1-8, teams 9-16 in groups 8-1, teams 17-24 in groups 1-8 etc.) you will get these seeding groups (in bold the teams that clash and will have to be shifted): Group 1 seeded Newcastle Rangers Celta H. Tel-Aviv Osasuna unseeded Standard Braga Molde Chornomorets Lev. Tallinn Group 2 seeded Panathinaikos Sparta Praha PSG Austria Litex unseeded M. Haifa Nancy Zaporizhya Mladá Boleslav Derry Group 3 seeded Schalke Hertha Lokomotiv Moskva Fenerbahçe Blackburn unseeded Hearts Legia Zulte-Waregem Salzburg Rabotnicki Group 4 seeded Parma AZ Lens Liberec Brøndby unseeded Crvena Zvezda Eintracht Rubin Kayserispor Achnas Group 5 seeded Sevilla Marseille Beşiktaş Wisła Grasshoppers unseeded Dinamo Zagreb Setúbal Atromitos OB Åtvidabergs FF Group 6 seeded Ajax Basel Palermo Rapid Bucuresti Chievo unseeded West Ham Nacional Trabzonspor Sion Randers Group 7 seeded Leverkusen Club Brugge Slavia Praha Partizan Dinamo Bucuresti unseeded Tottenham Groningen Iraklis Loko Sofia Ružomberok Group 8 seeded Feyenoord Auxerre Espanyol Heerenveen Livorno unseeded CSKA Sofia Artmedia Xanthi Start Pasching |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Maluyaca
Date: 25-08-2006, 00:19 | Is there really a system? I always thougth there was a pre-draw to determine which group of seeded teams could get which group of unseeded teams. |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 25-08-2006, 00:25 | Shifting clashing teams to the next group didn't give the correct results for last year, so I think UEFA just wants to shift as less teams as possible. Then you will get this: -Heerenveen and Nancy should stay in their group as there is no team that they can shift with -That meens Feyenoord has to be shifted with Schalke to avoid the group 8 clash -Also PSG has to be shifted. It can either be shifted with Celta or Palermo. I will take Celta because they are in the "closest group" -You still have 2 Italians in group 6 now, but shifting Chievo with Osasuna solves this problem (Osasuna was not clashing anymore after Celta was shifted, but since they were a clashing team I shift them) -Now only 2 clashes remain, and they are in the same class of teams so just shifting either Sparta Praha/Basel or Mlada/Sion solves this. I take the last because they are the teams you add the last to the scheme. This results in these groups: Group 1 seeded Newcastle Rangers PSG H. Tel-Aviv Chievo unseeded Standard Braga Molde Chornomorets Lev. Tallinn Group 2 seeded Panathinaikos Sparta Praha Celta Austria Litex unseeded M. Haifa Nancy Zaporizhya Sion Derry Group 3 seeded Feyenoord Hertha Lokomotiv Moskva Fenerbahçe Blackburn unseeded Hearts Legia Zulte-Waregem Salzburg Rabotnicki Group 4 seeded Parma AZ Lens Liberec Brøndby unseeded Crvena Zvezda Eintracht Rubin Kayserispor Achnas Group 5 seeded Sevilla Marseille Beşiktaş Wisła Grasshoppers unseeded Dinamo Zagreb Setúbal Atromitos OB Åtvidabergs FF Group 6 seeded Ajax Basel Palermo Rapid Bucuresti Osasuna unseeded West Ham Nacional Trabzonspor Mladá Boleslav Randers Group 7 seeded Leverkusen Club Brugge Slavia Praha Partizan Dinamo Bucuresti unseeded Tottenham Groningen Iraklis Loko Sofia Ružomberok Group 8 seeded Schalke Auxerre Espanyol Heerenveen Livorno unseeded CSKA Sofia Artmedia Xanthi Start Pasching So now lets see how far I'm corrert with my assumption that UEFA wants to shift as less teams as possible and only will shift teams that clash when you make the original scheme. |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 25-08-2006, 00:29 | @Maluyaca At first I also thought that there was just a draw, but looking at last years groups you could clearly see the system of 1-8, 16-9, 17-24 etc in the groups (with some shifts due to clashes). Only thing we couldn't explain was what system was behind the shifting. Let's see if my "system" give the correct groups now?????? |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Dinamo-Zagreb
Date: 25-08-2006, 00:32 | I think it is more like drawing one team from highest 8, then from second highest 8, third highest, and so on...repeat process a nubmer of times. |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: MalcolmW
Date: 25-08-2006, 00:52 | No - it's not been a random draw in the past 2 years, simply swaps to avoid duplicates, and there are generally alternatives. Well here goes! I've laid out the 80 UEFA round 1 clubs in ranking order as per the established pattern. Then found that only 4 swaps will achieve the desired changes to eliminate duplicates and that one of these is clearcut, 2 have alternative options and one has a range of possible solutions. If I am correct (and it's certainly a big if!) then the potential opponents for 3 of the English clubs should not need adjustment, and the fourth (West Ham) has limited variations. And if I'm right both Spurs and West Ham have got a tough start for sure!! NEWCASTLE UNITED: Standard Liege / Sporting Braga / Molde / Chertomorets Odesa / Levadia Tallinn BLACKBURN ROVERS: Hearts / Legia / Zulte Waregem / Austria Salzburg / Rabotnicki Skopje TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR: Bayer Leverkusen / Club Brugge / Slavia Praha / Partizan Belgrade / Dinamo Bucuresti WEST HAM UNITED: Ajax / Basel / Sparta Praha / Celta Vigo / Palermo / Rapid Bucuresti / Osasuna / Chievo |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 25-08-2006, 00:57 | @MalcolmW Did you make the same 4 swaps as I have indicated above? |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: badgerboy
Date: 25-08-2006, 03:26 | Sorry ForzaAZ & Malcolm W - but if UEFA go for such straightforward changes it will be a miracle and a big change from last year. Last year they also had seven pairs to split up but made far more changes than were necessary to do so. Indeed some changes that seem to bear no relation to splitting teams from the same country at all. Roma should've been in Group 1 but instead went to Group 6, replaced by Auxerre from Group 7. Monaco completed the triangle by shifting from 6 to 7. Bolton logically should've been in Group 2 but swapped with Grasshoppers in Group 8 for no apparent reason... In all 25 teams were moved around from their logical position in the draw - a lot more than necessary to split 7 pairs... |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 25-08-2006, 10:39 | Lots I predicted correctly, but there are again some illogical shifts. Why does UEFA shifts Ajax and Feyenoord and the same for Dinamo Zagreb and CSKA Sofia. I can't come up with a good reason. But at least I predicted 1 group completely correct, and it's exactly the group of AZ.  |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: vakho
Date: 25-08-2006, 10:55 | Forza-AZ : Your predictions are so precise  !!! I have a feeling that YOU ARE UEFA represenative  |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: bert.kassies
Date: 25-08-2006, 11:16 | Yes, Forza's prediction is remarkable good. This year the pattern is very clear.pos G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 Remarks: 1) Sevilla is ranked 6th based on coeffcient. 2) Ajax en Feyenoord are swapped at position 1 of groups 6 and 8. 3) Hertha and Sparta Praha are swapped at position 2 of groups 2 and 3. 4) Heerenveen and Wisla Krakov are swapped at position 4 of groups 5 and 8. 5) Chievo Verona and Osasuna are swapped at position5 5 of groups 1 and 6. 6) CSKA Sofia and Dinamo Zagreb are swapped at position 6 of groups 5 and 8. 7) Legia and Nancy are swapped at position 7 of groups 2 and 3. 8) Odense and Boleslav are swapped at position 9 of groups 2 and 5. 9) Lok. Sofia and Sion are swapped at position 9 of groups 6 and 7. 10) Randers and Rabotnicki are swapped at position 10 of groups 3 and 6. It's clear that some changes had to be applied. But to use this information effectively for next year's draw we need an explanation why UEFA made these changes and not other changes. Which changes were inevitable, were changes are the results of some choice, and which changes remain illogical. |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: MalcolmW
Date: 25-08-2006, 11:36 | @Forza Bert (et al) The changes I applied were: 1. Schalke & Feyenoord - this would have avoided 2 duplications in 1 move. 2. Spata & Basel (or Mlada & Sion to achieve same duplications). 3. Celta Vigo & Palermo (or Osasuna & Chievo to avoid same duplications). 4. PSG & Loko Moscow (UEFA chose instead to move Nancy & Legia, the equivalent minimum change to split the French duplicate). The net results I got were: Newcastle's potential opponents identified 5/5. Blackburn's potential oppnents identified 3/5. Tottenham's potential oppnents identified 5/5. West Ham's potential oppnents identified 4/8 (I knew that this set would be affected by at least the Spain/Italy swap). What was different this year was the low level of discrepancies from the initial set, and the fact that several duplicates had matching pairs (and so 2 possible easy solutions) - Spain-Italy and Czech-Swiss. And the swapping of Ajax and Feyenoord is surely significant. I guess it is part of an overall balancing, but since they were only 2 groups away it does seem very very very strange. With this year's data plus last year's (where the Bolton - Grasshoppers switch undermined my groundwork!) maybe a solution to the UEFA process (which does appear to be a programmed approach) will emerge. |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: bora
Date: 25-08-2006, 11:46 Edited by: bora at: 25-08-2006, 11:47 | g1 g2 g3 g4 g5 g6 g7 g8 410 407 403 405 396 405 405 409 uefa is again unfair, especially for group 5. |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Wisla_Krakow
Date: 25-08-2006, 11:50 | Wisla Krakow next time in the hardest group :/ |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Auke
Date: 25-08-2006, 12:33 Edited by: Auke at: 25-08-2006, 12:35 | I haven't read all the comments on predicting the groups for the draw, so it might have been suggested before, but i think that the uefa also takes the number of teams in a group that come from CL Q3 into account. If you look at the before mentioned 1-8, 16-9, 17-24 etc straightforward list that Forza first posted, and compare that to the eventually list made by Uefa, you can see that: Straightforward: in group 3 there are 4 unseeded teams coming from CL Q3: Hearts, Legia, Salzburg and Rabotnicki, also in group 6 there are 2 seeded teams: Ajax and Chievo. There are also no teams from CL Q3 in group 8. Uefa list: there are no seeded groups with more than 1 team from CL Q3 and the unseeded teams are spread as much as possible, no unseeded groups with more than 2 teams from CL Q3 and no unseeded groups without teams from CL Q3. This could explain Berts remarks: 2. The swap of Ajax and Feyenoord (6-8, to many seeded CL Q3 in 6) 6. The swap of CSKA Sofia and Dinamo Zagreb (5-8, no unseeded CL Q3 in 8) 7. The swap of Legia and Nancy (2-3, to many unseeded CL Q3 in 3) 10. The swap of Randers and Robitnicky (3-6, to many unseeded CL Q3 in 3) 1. According to your own list Bert, Sevilla is ranked 5th, so that is not a strange position... 3. Solves country problems for both teams, logical swap 4. Solves country problem for Heerenveen, logical 5. Solves country problem for both teams, logical 8. Solves country problem for Boleslav, but that was already solved by 3. so i can't explain that 9. Solves country problem for Sion, logical So this would solve everything, except that 8. was not necessary anymore. The only question that remains is, why these changes and not other changes that also solve the same problem? Maybe Uefa just has to make a decision to solve it, and it doesn't really matter how? Do you think this could be right? |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: badgerboy
Date: 25-08-2006, 12:36 Edited by: badgerboy at: 25-08-2006, 13:02 | Definitely more straightforward than last years swaps but still impossible to predict some "random events". You were closer than I expected though ForzaAZ. I was going to post my own predictions last night until I got bogged down into looking at past years and decided everything was far too random! You were a lot closer than my initial draft! |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 25-08-2006, 12:42 | I asked myslef how Uefa came to the groups. I really don't know!! First they swapped all lowest coefficient teams of countries where there were 2 of in 1 group: Osasuna, Nancy, M. Boleslav, Herhta, Chievo, Sion and Heerenveen. Why wich opponent was taken, I don't know(Osasuna ans Chievo were swapped) Then 3 more switches took place: Ajax/Feyenoord: group 8 had lowest coefficient and this evend it more out??? Dinamo Zagreb/CSKA Sofia Don't understand: ranking-coefficient is same, ranknumbers total difference is only increased by this??? Randers/Skopje: ????? this brings group 6 total coefficient to the lowest in the group. Other Danish teams are in group 2 and 4, 3rd team moved from 6 to 3... I don't see the reason |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: executor
Date: 25-08-2006, 13:57 Edited by: executor at: 25-08-2006, 14:04 | {pre> Newcastle United @ Eng 75.950 CSKA Sofia * Bul 21.016 Panathinaikos Gre 66.587 Tottenham Hotspur Eng 20.950 {b>Schalke 04{/b> Ger 64.960 West Ham United Eng 20.950 Parma Ita 63.020 Dinamo Zagreb *** Cro 20.647 Sevilla (TH) Esp 61.006 Red Star Belgrade *** Srb 20.600 Ajax *** Ned 60.640 Hearts FC *** Sco 20.023 Bayer Leverkusen Ger 57.960 Maccabi Haifa *** Isr 19.108 {b>Feyenoord{/b> Ned 54.640 Standard Liège *** Bel 17.981 - AJ Auxerre @ Fra 53.757 Sporting Braga Por 17.533 Club Brugge ** Bel 49.981 {b>AS Nancy Lorraine{/b> Fra 16.757 {b>FC Basel{/b> * Sui 49.537 Legia Warsaw *** Pol 16.104 Olympique Marseille @ Fra 48.757 Eintracht Frankfurt Ger 15.960 AZ Alkmaar Ned 48.640 Vitória Setúbal Por 15.533 {b>Hertha BSC{/b> @ Ger 46.960 Nacional Funchal Por 14.533 {b>Sparta Praha{/b> Cze 44.769 FC Groningen Ned 13.640 Glasgow Rangers Sco 43.023 FC Petrzalka * Svk 13.070 - {b>Celta de Vigo{/b> Esp 43.006 Iraklis Thessaloniki Gre 12.587 {b>Paris Saint-Germain{/b> Fra 41.757 Xanthi FC Gre 12.587 Lokomotiv Moscow Rus 41.504 Trabzonspor ** Tur 11.634 RC Lens Fra 39.757 Atromitos FC Gre 10.587 Besiktas Tur 38.634 Rubin Kazan ** Rus 10.504 {b>Palermo{/b> Ita 36.020 Zulte Waregem Bel 9.981 Slavia Praha ** Cze 33.769 Metalurg Zaporizhia ** Ukr 9.777 Espanyol Esp 33.006 Molde FK ** Nor 8.921 - {b>Heerenveen{/b> Ned 30.640 Chernomorets Odesa ** Ukr 8.777 Partizan Belgrade ** Srb 30.600 {b>Mladá Boleslav{/b> *** Cze 8.769 Rapid Bucuresti * Rom 30.381 Austria Salzburg *** Aut 8.723 Wisla Kraków ** Pol 29.104 Kayserispor @ Tur 8.634 Slovan Liberec *** Cze 28.769 OB Odense @ Den 8.593 Fenerbahçe *** Tur 28.634 {b>FC Sion{/b> ** Sui 8.537 Austria Wien *** Aut 27.723 Lokomotiv Sofia * Bul 8.016 Hapoel Tel-Aviv ** Isr 26.108 Start Kristiansand * Nor 6.921 - {b>Osasuna{/b> *** Esp 25.006 SV Pasching Aut 6.723 FC Lovech * Bul 24.016 SCP Ruzomberok *** Svk 6.070 Blackburn Rovers Eng 23.950 Randers FC * Den 5.593 Brøndby IF * Den 23.593 Åtvidabergs FF * Swe 4.372 Grasshoppers Zürich @ Sui 23.537 Ethnikos Achna @ Cyp 3.355 {b>Chievo Verona{/b> *** Ita 23.020 Rabotnicki Skopje *** Mac 1.760 Dinamo Bucuresti * Rom 22.381 Derry City * Irl 1.430 Livorno Ita 22.020 Levadia Tallinn * Est 0.880 {/pre> OK, here is how UEFA deals with duplicates (two teams from the same country in one group): After they defined the groups by the above-mentioned rules, they split the seeded and unseeded teams in groups of 8, as shown above. The teams that form duplicates are bolded. Ricardo is right, the next step is to search group by group, look for duplicates and select the lowest seeded team of such pairs for move. But where? They look to the table above and try to see if there is another bolded team IN THE SAME GROUP UNDER THE TEAM IN QUESTION. That UNDER is crucial. BUT ONLY FOR SEEDED TEAMS. (Don't know why not for the unseeded). And if there aren't any, they took each team UNDER that and try to see if the switch would create duplicates. If it does they move to the next one. Examples: Group 1: {b>Osasuna{/b>. Do they have a bolded team under them in the same group? Yes, Chievo. Group 2: {b>Mlada{/b>. Unseeded. Who's under them? Austria Salzburg. Can we switch them? No, 'cause it's Austria Wien in the same group with Mlada. Next? Kayserispor. No again, because of Liberec. Next? Odense -> switch possible. {b>Nancy{/b>. Unseeded. Who's under them? Legia. Switch possible. Group 3: {b>Hertha{/b>. Do they have a bolded team under them in the same group? No. (By moving Mlada, Sparta isn't bolded anymore). Who's under them? Sparta . Switch possible.Group 6: {b>Chievo{/b> - was solved. {b>Sion{/b> - Unseeded. Who's under them? Lokomotiv Sofia. Switch possible. Group 8: {b>Heerenveen{/b> - Do they have a bolded team under them in the same group? No. Who's under them? Partizan. Switch not possible due to Groningen. Next: Rapid. Switch not possible due to Ajax. Next Wisla: Switch possible. The only questions are about: CSKA Sofia/Dinamo Zagreb, Randers/Rabotnicki and Ajax/Feyenoord. Maybe Auke is right. I don't have time to check it now. Maybe later. But if you look carefully no team is switched with a team outside its group. |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: panda
Date: 25-08-2006, 14:08 | Brilliant, if you solved it! How come Sion isn't another bolded team under Mlada? |
| Re: How will the seeding groups for UEFA R1 be? | |
| Author: executor
Date: 25-08-2006, 14:10 | @panda I think it's a mistake of mine  Looks like that rule only appplies to seeded teams. I've corrected the document. |